Meta builds a prediction-market app after Kalshi talks fell through
Meta explored buying Kalshi before opting to build its own prediction-market app, NPR reported . Mark Zuckerberg met with Kalshi’s chief executive about a deal last year, but the talks stalled — accounts differ on whether Kalshi declined to sell or Meta judged the legal and ethical questions around the business too messy.
Instead, Meta has assembled a team to release an app called Arena. Unlike Kalshi and rival Polymarket, which take real-money bets, Meta’s version would have users wager “play money” on news outcomes and trending topics — a design that sidesteps the gambling-regulation exposure attached to cash markets while still feeding on the same engagement.
The interest reflects how quickly prediction markets have grown: combined monthly volume on Kalshi and Polymarket has jumped from about $28 billion a year ago to nearly $220 billion, driven largely by sports betting, and Kalshi was valued at $22 billion in a May funding round. For Meta, a play-money product offers a way into the category as a social feature without becoming a regulated betting operator.