Bank of England company data points to a 6% Brexit hit to UK output
New analysis built on Bank of England company-level data estimates that Brexit had reduced UK economic output by around 6% by the end of 2025, the BBC reported on June 18 . The study — produced by economists tied to the Bank of England, Stanford University, the Deutsche Bundesbank, King’s College London and the University of Nottingham, and revised in June 2026 — puts the hit to business investment at 12% to 13% and to employment and productivity at 3% to 4% each.
The authors attribute the damage to a mix of elevated uncertainty, weaker demand, diverted management attention and the misallocation of resources over a drawn-out departure from the EU. Using firm-level rather than purely aggregate data lets the researchers isolate Brexit effects more directly, and their central figure sits at the lower end of the 6% to 8% range that several earlier assessments have produced.
The estimate matters for the fiscal debate in Westminster: a persistent 6% shortfall in output implies a structurally smaller tax base, constraining spending and borrowing choices regardless of which party is in government.