Australia warns of a strong El Nino, possibly the most intense since 1950
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology warned that an El Nino pattern has formed in the tropical Pacific and may strengthen sharply over the second half of 2026, with forecasts “pointing towards a strong to very strong” event. About half the models indicate it could peak among the highest levels observed since 1950. The UN’s World Meteorological Organization put the chance of El Nino conditions through August at 80 percent, rising near or above 90 percent through at least November.
El Nino reshapes global weather: the bureau flagged heavier rainfall in the Americas, hotter and drier conditions across Asia, and reduced rain and higher temperatures in eastern and southern Australia. It warned of damage to farm output, naming wheat, sugar, and beef exports as exposed.
A strong El Nino layered onto an already warm baseline tends to push global temperatures to record territory and strain agriculture and water supplies. The practical signal here is for commodity and food markets: forecast drought in major exporting regions feeds directly into crop prices well before the harvest gap shows up.